Uchi Oil And Gas

With Brent oil prices hovering right around $55 per barrelthe highest level in monthsthe oil market has picked up momentum. There are plenty of pitfalls ahead, but the underlying fundamentals offer some reasons to be slightly bullish on crude. As the IEA mentioned last week, global oil supply fell in August by 720,000 bpd, a sizable decline that has chipped away at the global surplus. At the same time, demand continues to rise; the agency had to revise up its forecast for t...he year for demand growth to 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d), from 1.5 mb/d a month earlier. But the more intriguing trend is the global decline of refined product stocks, a drawdown that has picked up pace over the past three months. The IEA estimates that OECD refined product stocks stood just 35 million barrels above the five-year average in August, down by two thirds from the 103-million-barrel surplus at the start of the year. As mentioned before, demand appears to be strong, which the IEA says is the result of robust economic growth in Europe, the US and Asia. U.S. gasoline consumption in June, for example, was 665,000 bpd higher than a year earlier. The IEA said it’s possible that refined product stocks would fall back within the five-year average before the year is out. (Click to enlarge) However, there are a few caveats to consider, which might help explain falling OECD refined product stocks and don’t necessarily point to bullishness in the market for crude. For instance, there were significant refinery outages in Germany, Greece, Mexico and the Netherlandswhich, as the IEA points out, are all part of the OECD. With refining runs abnormally down, refiners drew down on storage. Some of those outages could be restored, easing the pressure on inventories. Related: Iraq Sees No Need For Further OPEC Oil Output Cuts Also, Hurricane Harvey will result in a one-off draw on stocks, albeit a potentially large one. The massive disruption of refining operations along the Gulf Coast left refined product production severely down. Most refineries have resumed operation, but some are still running at reduced rates.

Oil prices inched lower Thursday after settling at a nearly five-month high a day earlier, as traders looked to the production-cut agreement led by OPEC to further tighten global crude supplies. The market also weighed data from a U.S. government report released Wednesday, which showed a larger-than-expected weekly rise in domestic crude supplies and a sizable climb in production. The data, however, also revealed that petroleum-product inventories dropped more than expected a...Continue reading

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices were largely steady on Thursday as traders waited to see whether oil-producing countries set to meet in Vienna would extend production limits that have helped reduce the global crude glut. Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers meeting in Vienna on Friday, will discuss a possible extension of a deal to cut 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply to support prices and will consider mo...nitoring exports to assess compliance. While many analysts expect them to extend the deal that currently lasts until March, many also said prices at current levels could encourage some countries to boost production. Even if the deal is extended, compliance looks to be a bit of an issue if prices rise much from current levels, said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York. He noted that oil prices have surged more than 15 percent over the last three months as global supply has tightened. The bull run in the oil market is running out of steam as unease builds ahead of tomorrow’s OPEC/non-OPEC meeting, said Stephen Brennock, analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil Associates. By 12:23 p.m. ET (1623 GMT), global benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 had dipped 5 cents a barrel, or 0.09 pct, to $56.24 a barrel. U.S. crude CLc1 was down 14 cents, or 0.28 percent, at $50.55 a barrel. We’re a little rangebound and choppy, not too much of a direction, said Tariq Zahir, a trader with Tyche Capital Advisors in New York. After a strong rise in prices over the last three months, he said, there were signs that output was rising especially among U.S. shale producers. OPEC’s output cuts have boosted prices enough to encourage higher production elsewhere. U.S. shale production, especially, has been growing to record highs. Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico have also pushed up crude inventories in some parts of the United States as refineries have been shut by flooding. U.S. crude production has reached 9.51 million bpd, up from 8.78 million bpd after Hurricane Harvey hit the U.S. Gulf. Rising U.S. production is a reminder to the market that OPEC has a significant problem on its hands from the continued rise in shale output, Kilduff said. Front-month Brent futures have risen sharply in recent months, much more than forward prices and the contango, a symptom of an oversupplied market, has gradually disappeared from most crude markets to be replaced by backwardation, a sign of tightness.<0#LCO:> Brent futures have traded in a sustained backwardation, where the back months are cheaper than the front month contract, for the first time since oil prices started slumping in July 2014. Brent’s backwardation, initially confined to the contracts nearest expiry, now extends throughout the whole of next year.

U.S. oil is trading at the biggest discount to the global price in two years, helping extend a boom in exports of crude from American shale fields to refiners in Europe and Asia. After Hurricane Harvey hammered the Gulf Coast last month, the price of Nymex crude sank to as much as $6.30 a barrel below its European counterpart, Brentthe widest gap since August 2015. Harvey has passed, but analysts say the storm will reshape global crude flows for months. The difference betwee...Continue reading

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