MFA Agri Services

Good morning. Grain and soybean markets are moving higher and currently near session highs this morning with soybeans leading the way on expectations that tomorrow’s WASDE report will take the bean ending stocks figure lower. Additional support is coming from soaring equity and energy markets which are reacting to news from Pfizer that its experimental Covid-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing the virus, a much higher rate than was expected. This has increase...d hope that we can return to a pre-Covid life later in 2021. Crude oil is $3.50 higher and Dow futures have soared 1500 points this morning. China is suggesting that Biden renegotiate the Phase 1 Trade Agreement as it says some of China’s commitments are unrealistic. Hopefully, that doesn’t occur. Another week of below normal rainfall is forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil, adding to moisture stress. Dalian corn, soybean, and soymeal futures were lower today; Malaysian palm oil was higher and Paris wheat futures are higher. Russia has imposed a 30% export tax on sunflower seeds effective January 1st to slow exports and stem rising domestic prices. A poor Black Sea harvest has resulted in shortages of sun, palm, and rapeseed oil. This afternoon’s Crop Conditions Report is expected to show corn and soybean harvest both more than 90% complete. Wednesday is Veterans Day banks and the USPS are closed, but the CBT is open, trading normal hours. Today could be a rather wild trading day with position evening in front of tomorrow’s report and exuberance regarding a Covid vaccine the driving factors. Have a good Monday. See more

Good morning. Grain and soybean markets traded both sides of yesterday’s closes during the overnight hours. Lower crude oil and equity markets are helping to temper some of the buying enthusiasm in grains that occurred earlier in the week. Dalian corn futures were lower to end the week while soybean futures closed higher. Malaysian palm oil was lower. Harvesting of corn and soybeans is finishing up in most areas of the Midwest, but there are still a lot of acres in Ohio, Mich...igan, and northern Missouri remaining. Space is an issue for a number of elevators in Missouri as yields have been very good. The November crop report will be released on Tuesday average trade guesses for corn yield are 177.7 bu./acre (October’s report was 178.4). Soybean yield guesses average 51.6 (51.9 in October). We’ll see if the USDA increases exports for corn and soybeans given the rapid pace of soybean exports thus far and expectations that the projection of Chinese corn imports will need to be raised perhaps 15 MMTs from the USDA’s current estimate of 7 MMTs. Ending stock guesses for Tuesday’s report include 2.033 billion bu. of corn (2.167 in the October report) and 235 million bu. of soybeans (290). Covid infections and deaths continue to increase here in the U.S. and in Europe which will likely limit travel this winter and thus gasoline and ethanol demand. Dryness in South America looks like it will be an issue for at least another ten days although it appears that farmers there will make good progress planting corn and soybeans. Its been a higher week for grain and soybean markets but it looks like the week will end on a mixed note. Have a good Friday. See more

Good morning. Yesterday’s rally extended into the beginning of today’s session as corn, soybeans, and wheat all rallied strongly overnight. Soybean contracts scored new contract highs during the overnight hours. Some of the rally can be attributed to the rumored Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans yesterday, but the general sentiment is that markets are benefiting from new buying by participants who had been waiting until after the election to place new positions. With it look...ing like Biden will be the winner, traders expect a softening of U.S./Chinese relations which is potentially bullish demand. The Dollar is sharply lower this morning and equity futures are higher but crude oil is lower. Weather in the southern hemisphere is also supportive as most of Argentina and the southern 1/3rd of Brazil are excessively dry. Export sales for the week ended October 29th are included in the table below. Wheat and soybean sales were within the range of trader expectations while corn sales were higher than expected and have pushed corn futures another several cents higher since the report’s 7:30 AM release. It looks like today is a risk on day expect grains and soybeans to hold strong gains throughout the day. Have a good Thursday. See more

Election day is past, but the counting continues. Markets are nervous this morning with the Presidential race undecided. Grains and soybeans were lower overnight when odds increased that President Trump would be reelected as traders expect that a second Trump term would include more sanctions against China as well as a strong Dollar. However, as the night wore on and election results remained non-conclusive, prices were able to rebound on concern that weather is less than ide...al in parts of Brazil and Argentina. Most of Argentina and southern Brazil will be drier than normal the next ten days. The November crop report will be released next Tuesday, and analyst estimates of possible changes to the balance sheets in the report will be closely watched as report day nears. Dalian futures were mixed today with corn lower and soybeans and soymeal higher. Malaysian palm oil rose today while Paris wheat futures closed lower. Crude oil is a dollar higher this morning and equity futures are indicating a higher opening for U.S. stocks. The dollar is weaker to begin the day. Good weather in the Midwest is speeding the harvest of remaining corn and soybean acreage. There is talk that some areas are finding better than expected yields, particularly in northern Ohio and Michigan. The EIA will issue its weekly energy production and inventory report later this morning expect ethanol production last week to show a modest increase from the previous week’s level. Ethanol inventories are currently at the lowest level in nearly four years. Expect markets to be rather volatile today as they react to additional election news. Have a good Wednesday. See more

Good morning. It’s a green morning this election day as grain, soybean, energy, and equity markets are all higher. The Dollar is weaker. Dalian corn futures were lower today, but soybean futures rose. Malaysian palm oil futures were higher. Spot prices for corn and soybeans in Brazil set record highs last week. Southern Brazil is dry and there are reports that some first season corn was torn up and replaced with soybeans. Although soybean planting has been rapid the past two ...weeks in Brazil, it is running about two weeks later than the past few years. AgRural estimated that 42% of the Brazilian soybean crop was planted as of October 29th, compared to the average of 44%. There was talk that bean harvest will be delayed two to three weeks due to the late start to planting and limited soil moisture reserves, but Brazilian sources are now suggesting that the harvest delays will not be that great, possibly just a week or less compared to the last three years. The crop conditions report estimated that 82% of corn and 87% of soybeans have been harvested nationwide. Ohio has harvested just 41% of its corn as of Sunday, with Wisconsin 55% complete and Michigan 53% done. Missouri still has 40% of its soybean harvest remaining. Most of the remaining corn and soybean harvest should be complete by early next week. Another 118 lots of soybeans were delivered against the November contract. The recent round of profit taking appears to have run its course. Expect markets to remain in the green today. Have a good Tuesday. See more

Good morning. Grain and soybean markets are back trading in the green this morning as profit taking subsided overnight. Overnight trading volume was again heavy. Dalian corn and soybean markets closed higher today as did Malaysian palm oil. Paris wheat futures are currently lower. Equity futures are lower and energy markets are steady to slightly weaker. The Dollar is weaker this morning. Today is first notice day for November contracts. There were 300 contracts of soybean d...eliveries which was a bit of a surprise. This is causing soybean spreads to weaken with SX/SF moving back to a slight carry. Corn spreads are also weaker. Weather looks good this weekend and most of next week across the Midwest. Corn and soybean harvest should both be nearing completion in many areas with the exception of the far eastern belt as Ohio producers still have well over half of their corn crop to harvest. U.S. soybean harvest is expected to be reported near 90% complete in Monday’s crop conditions report with corn progress expected to be 80 83% done. Planting of corn and soybeans continues in earnest in South America. Soil moisture levels across Brazil have improved the past week, but Argentina is expected to have little or no rain the next week. Traders remain concerned that La Nina will lead to below normal rainfall amounts across a wide swath of Argentine and Brazilian growing regions into early next year. Commodity fund selling has pushed markets lower the past couple of sessions. It appears that fund selling has abated, at least in the very short term, but traders will continue to be nervous in front of the elections. We’re higher to begin the day, but all bets are off as to what the close will look like. Have a good Friday. See more

Good morning. Grain and soybean markets started the night session on a steady/slightly firmer note but have since succumbed to more profit taking and are now moderately lower. Energy markets are again lower, and the Dollar is firmer. Equity futures are slightly lower. Trading volume overnight was again heavy. World markets were mixed today: Dalian corn and soybeans were higher, while soymeal and soyoil were weaker. Paris wheat futures are lower. Malaysian markets were closed... for a national holiday. The USDA held its annual Data Users Meeting this week in a virtual form. When questioned about its projection of Chinese corn imports of just 7.5 MMTs, officials said that China had not officially changed its TRQ corn import policy and could still cancel purchases. Cancelations of soybean purchases will be something to be watching for in the coming weeks following the huge numbers of soybeans the Chinese have bought the past few months. Midwest weather still looks favorable for harvesting this weekend through much of next week. The lack of carry in cash and futures markets will likely cause producers to sell a large portion of the crop remaining to be harvested. Export sales for the week ended October 22nd. Sales for all three commodities were on the high side of expectations. It looks like more profit taking is in store today, at least during the early part of the morning. Have a good Thursday. See more

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Good morning. Well, we haven’t seen an overnight trade like this one for some time as grains and soybeans are sharply lower and spreads weaker. A couple of factors are combining to push markets lower profit-taking in front of next week’s elections and concern that rising cases of Covid , both in the U.S. and around the world, will lead to decreases in fuel and food demand during the winter months. Lower equity and energy markets along with a firmer Dollar are also negative... to grains. Trading volume overnight was heavy. Chinese buying has slowed significantly in recent days. World markets are mixed: Dalian corn and soybean futures were higher today while soymeal and soyoil was lower; Malaysian palm oil was lower. Beneficial moisture fell overnight on the southern Plains and will continue today and tomorrow. Weekend rains are forecast for dry Black Sea wheat producing regions. Soybean and corn planting continue in Brazil at a rapid pace. Hurricane Zeta will make land fall later today and will slow loadings at the Gulf, but only for a day or two as the remnants of the storm quickly move north and east across the southeastern U.S. It’s been a bitterly cold week for the Plains and Upper Midwest, but a warming trend will set in next week and should allow much of the remaining corn and soybean acres to be harvested. Corn, soybeans, and wheat have been due a profit taking set-back for some time. Look for markets to remain in the red today. Have a good Wednesday. See more

Good morning. Grain and soybean markets traded on both sides of yesterday’s closes during the overnight session. Dalian corn futures were little changed today while soymeal futures closed lower. Paris wheat and Malaysian palm oil futures both rose today. NASS estimated that 72% of U.S. corn and 83% of soybeans had been harvested as of Sunday. The initial winter wheat rating estimated that 41% of the crop was in good or excellent condition, well below a year ago when the ratin...g was 56%. Big chunks of both corn and soybeans are being sold by producers this fall. Basis remains strong with many markets now posting nearby bids that are the same, or just small discounts to deferred (Dec/Jan) bids. This will likely lead to additional producer selling as they finish harvest. Hurricane Zeta is expected to make landfall tomorrow night near New Orleans. It will delay loadings at the gulf due to heavy rains. Good weather in Brazil the past week has allowed Brazilian farmers the opportunity to rapidly seed both corn and soybeans. Estimates place Brazilian soybean planting near 25% with 70 75% of the first corn crop now in the ground. Weather forecasts indicate that the remaining corn and soybean acres will be rapidly planted the next two weeks. The EPA is expected to announce its decision regarding Dicamba this afternoon. It will likely approve the chemical for soybean and cotton production. Bitter cold has settled into the northern Midwest and the Plains states with some areas setting all time record lows for the month of October. A warming trend will occur next week, melting snow and allowing harvest to resume. Commodity funds were again buyers of corn, soybeans, and wheat yesterday. With news limited and focus on next week’s election, expect markets to trade sideways today. Have a good Tuesday. See more

Good morning. We’re beginning the week with corn, soybeans, and wheat under pressure. Wheat is lower on improving moisture prospects for the U.S. southern Plains , Ukraine, and southwestern Russia. The selling in wheat has spilled over to both corn and soybeans as traders book profits. The southern Plains region is expected to get the moisture equivalent of .50 to 2.5 from rain and snowfall over the next ten days while wheat producing areas in Russia and Ukraine are forecas...t to receive .25 to 1.5 over the same period, allowing for wheat germination and establishment. Beneficial rains fell on key Argentine growing regions over the weekend Brazil’s weather looks good for planting to wrap up in another two weeks. A rather wet and cold week lies ahead for the Midwest which will slow harvest, but a drier and warmer week is forecast next week. This afternoon’s crop conditions report is expected to estimate that about 85% of U.S. soybeans and 73% of corn has been harvested. Chinese corn prices were higher today with soymeal lower. Malaysian palm oil scored near limit gains today. Paris wheat futures were lower. The Dollar is higher to begin the week as agreement between Democrats and Republicans on a fresh stimulus package is not expected to be reached (more stimulus would increase the budget deficit). Equity markets are lower on the lack of an agreement. Export demand for both corn and soybeans remains excellent, but ethanol producers are struggling with poor margins and soybean crush margins are also declining. China’s leaders are meeting this week in Beijing to discuss economic and social priorities for the next five years, including grain and food production. The U.S. said Friday that China has purchased 71% of its Phase 1 commitments for U.S. agricultural goods. Hurricane Zeta is expected to affect the Gulf region Wednesday with heavy rains that will slow this week’s export shipments. Funds added to their long positions for corn, soybeans, and wheat Friday. How they react this week to the upcoming election will play a big part in market direction. Expect markets to be jumpy as election day nears. Have a good Monday. See more

Good morning. Grain and soybean markets traded mostly lower overnight but have rallied and are now trading with small gains and near session highs. Prices rallied after a news article was published that suggested China will issue more TRQ’s (Tariff Reduction Quotas) for grain and soybean imports. This shouldn’t be a surprise given that markets have been rallying on strong Chinese demand that has been assumed to be far in excess of previously issued TRQ’s. Chinese sources ind...icate that China has already purchased 12 MMTs of U.S. corn along with 5 MMTs from other countries. Dalian corn and soymeal futures were lower today while Paris wheat futures and Malaysian palm oil posted small gains. Computer models are showing a beneficial rain of 1.0 2.5 inches for Texas, Oklahoma, and western Kansas late next week which would be ideal for winter wheat acres. The Midwest will be colder than normal the next two weeks with rains today and again early next week followed by a period of below normal precipitation. Brazilian weather still looks good for rapid planting of both corn and soybeans into early November. Markets remain susceptible for a profit-taking dip and it is Friday. A good day to go home even. Have a safe day. See more

Good morning. Corn and soybeans are strongly higher to begin the day after a night session that featured heavy trading volume. Corn has reached fresh 6-month highs during the overnight trade. Malaysian palm oil futures were higher today, supporting soybeans, as are firming bids for Gulf soybeans which reached +90SX yesterday. Like soybeans, Gulf corn premiums are continuing to firm. Analysts are talking about the need for soybean prices to rise relative to corn to encourage m...ore soybean acres next year. A wire story overnight quoted Chinese officials who stated that China has no plans to intervene in rising domestic corn prices which officials say are the result of typhoon damage to the corn crop and strong demand from a quick recovery in hog production following the African Swine flu outbreak and increasing production of starch and ethanol. A senior agriculture ministry official said today that typhoon damage has decreased corn production in northeastern China, but also stated that China’s total corn production will result in a bumper crop. Rising corn prices have caused some feed grain companies in China to switch from corn to wheat. Winter-like weather is slowing corn harvest in the northern Plains and Midwest with total snowfall yesterday of 6 or more common across a large area of southern Minnesota. More snow is in the forecast for the region into next week. Father south, a cool and wet period is likely for the next week. Although Brazil has suspended tariffs on corn and soybean imports, Brazil’s CONAB is not expecting large soybean imports in the short run. The weekly EIA energy production report will be released later this morning with ethanol production expected to be near last week’s output. The rally continues; expect markets to spend most, if not all, of the day in the green. Have a good Wednesday. See more