MFA Agri-Services Versailles

Good morning. Corn, soybean, and wheat markets are showing no signs yet of nearing a top as corn and soybean futures established new contract highs overnight with corn briefly eclipsing the $5 mark and soybeans nearing the $14 level. Wheat is just a few cents below contract highs. There has been lots of speculation the past few days on how much more money commodity funds may invest into ag commodities, but it is apparently a substantial amount as funds were again big buyers y...esterday, purchasing an estimated 25,000 corn and 30,000 soybean contracts. World markets are also near, or at historically high levels. Chinese corn futures rose to an all-time high today and Dalian soybeans also closed higher. Malaysian palm oil rose sharply with prices now at a ten-year high. Paris wheat is higher. The Dollar has weakened significantly the past two months, making U.S. exports more competitive in world markets. It is again weaker this morning. Crude oil and equity futures are little changed. The Rosario Grain Exchange estimated the Argentine corn crop at 48 MMTs. This would be 1 MMT less than the current USDA projection. It projected the Argentine soybean crop at 50 MMTs, the same as the current USDA estimate. Ethanol production and inventory numbers for the week ended December 31st will be released later this morning. First of the new year buying continues to push markets higher and deeper into overbought territory. For now, at least, the arrow remains pointed higher. Have a good Wednesday. See more

Good morning. Grains and soybeans are again strongly higher this morning, led by the soybean market, after another overnight session that featured heavy trading volume. Wheat overnight traded to the highest level in 6 years. Chinese soybeans were lower today with corn steady. Malaysian palm oil futures were higher. The USDA yesterday afternoon reported the U.S. November soybean crush at 191 million bu. which was a record for the month of November and 16 million bu. more than ...November 2019 crush. The USDA also released wheat ratings for individual states, the first since late November. The Illinois soft wheat crop rating declined sharply with just 50% of the crop in good or excellent condition compared to 79% in late November. Kansas wheat improved 13% but Colorado conditions declined. The Nebraska wheat rating was unchanged. Crude oil is higher this morning with futures contracts trading above $48. The Dollar is weaker equity futures are slightly lower. The 2020 elections wrap up today with the U.S. Senate runoff elections in Georgia. Otherwise, there is little fresh news with fundamentals bullish and continuing doubts about South American production. The January crop report is just one week away Conab will release its January report a day later on the 13th. Technicals are showing corn and soybeans as overbought, but fundamentals point to needed rationing. Expect market volatility to remain high in front of next week’s report. Have a good Tuesday. See more

Good morning. The new week is starting off with a negative vibe as corn, soybeans, and wheat are all sharply lower. Outside markets are a bit negative to grains although not to a great degree with crude oil down $0.40, equity futures slightly lower, and the Dollar modestly firmer. Rain is falling on central and northern Brazil this morning, but extended forecasts show most of Brazil and Argentina getting less than average rainfall the balance of December. Most of the overnigh...t weakness has been tied to additional profit taking as traders work on evening positions in front of Thursday’s USDA crop report. Conab will also release its monthly crop report early Thursday morning. Concern about rising numbers of Covid cases and the likelihood that gasoline usage will be curtailed all winter long are also limiting fresh buying. On the other hand, it is difficult to see prices moving markedly lower in the short run given the strong demand picture for both corn and soybeans that will probably cause the USDA to eventually bump export projections higher and ending stocks lower. Average trade guesses for 2020/21 U.S. ending stocks are included below. Dalian markets were mixed today: soybeans and soyoil were higher, corn and soymeal were lower. Malaysian palm oil was lower. The negative mood this morning will likely carry through the day, as funds lighten long positions in front of Thursday’s report. Have a good Monday. See more

Good morning. Grain and soybean markets traded mostly lower overnight but have rallied and are now trading with small gains and near session highs. Prices rallied after a news article was published that suggested China will issue more TRQ’s (Tariff Reduction Quotas) for grain and soybean imports. This shouldn’t be a surprise given that markets have been rallying on strong Chinese demand that has been assumed to be far in excess of previously issued TRQ’s. Chinese sources ind...icate that China has already purchased 12 MMTs of U.S. corn along with 5 MMTs from other countries. Dalian corn and soymeal futures were lower today while Paris wheat futures and Malaysian palm oil posted small gains. Computer models are showing a beneficial rain of 1.0 2.5 inches for Texas, Oklahoma, and western Kansas late next week which would be ideal for winter wheat acres. The Midwest will be colder than normal the next two weeks with rains today and again early next week followed by a period of below normal precipitation. Brazilian weather still looks good for rapid planting of both corn and soybeans into early November. Markets remain susceptible for a profit-taking dip. See more

Good morning. Pressure from lower Chinese markets and concern about rise in Covid cases pushed grain and soybean futures at the CME lower overnight. Dalian corn, soybean, and veg oil markets fell for the second straight day and it appears that travel will continue to be negatively affected by the coronavirus as cases in the U.S. and Europe are on the rise and health officials fear it will get worse during the winter months. Weather looks favorable for harvest activity to incr...ease the next two weeks as most of the Midwest will see below normal rainfall. However, it will turn significantly cooler next week across the region which will slow corn dry down. The weekly EIA energy report will be released later this morning. Although ethanol production has stagnated at levels 8 to 10% less than a year ago, ethanol stocks have declined to their lowest level in nearly 4 years, which may induce production to increase modestly in the coming weeks. Yesterday, commodity funds bought small amounts of wheat and were even corn. They sold an estimated 2000 soybean contracts. Funds are estimated to be long 223,000 soybean, 66,000 corn, and 28,000 contracts of Chicago wheat. More sales to China are expected to be reported. Have a good Wednesday. See more